{"id":284751,"date":"2026-08-04T15:49:36","date_gmt":"2026-08-04T13:49:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/?p=284751"},"modified":"2026-08-04T17:17:13","modified_gmt":"2026-08-04T15:17:13","slug":"photovoltaic-cost-public-roofs-capex-lcoe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/en\/costo-fotovoltaico-tetti-pubblici-capex-lcoe\/","title":{"rendered":"How much does it cost to solarise public roofs? CAPEX, LCOE and economic variables"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"heiwit-pa-study\">\n<p class=\"heiwit-pa-lead\">The preliminary economic model states an investment of approximately 6.8 billion euros. The figure is interesting, but it must not be turned into a promise of return until cash flows, price sources and sensitivity analyses are published.<\/p>\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-kpis\">\n<div><strong>\u20ac6.8bn<\/strong><span>declared aggregate CAPEX<\/span><\/div>\n<div><strong>25 years old<\/strong><span>model horizon<\/span><\/div>\n<div><strong>4%<\/strong><span>Scenario WACC<\/span><\/div>\n<div><strong>60%<\/strong><span>self-consumption assumed in the base case<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-warning\"><strong>Transparency notice.<\/strong> The values 5.68 GW, 7.53 TWh\/year and 6.8 billion euros are results declared by the Heiwit model. The document audit of 4 August 2026 was unable to replicate them in full because detailed datasets, code, API logs, bootstrap outputs, GSE matching and cash flow were missing from the material received. The limitation is stated, not hidden.<\/div>\n<section class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-section\" aria-labelledby=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-4-title\">\n<h2 id=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-4-title\">The chapter in 8 slides<\/h2>\n<p class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-intro\">Scroll through the original carousel created for this chapter. The images have been optimised for the web and uploaded to the WordPress Media Library.<\/p>\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel\" data-heiwit-carousel tabindex=\"0\" aria-roledescription=\"carosello\" aria-label=\"How much does it cost to solarise public roofs? CAPEX, LCOE and economic variables\"><span class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-badge\">Original slides \u00b7 audited data in the text<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-viewport\" data-carousel-viewport>\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-track\">\n<figure class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-slide\" data-carousel-slide aria-label=\"Slide 1 of 8\"><img width=\"819\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-01-3-819x1024.webp\" class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-image\" alt=\"Solar panels on public roofs and cost-effectiveness\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-01-3-819x1024.webp 819w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-01-3-240x300.webp 240w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-01-3-768x960.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-01-3.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 819px) 100vw, 819px\" \/><figcaption><span>1\/8<\/span>Solar panels on public roofs and cost-effectiveness<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-slide\" data-carousel-slide aria-label=\"Slide 2 of 8\"><img width=\"819\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-02-3-819x1024.webp\" class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-image\" alt=\"Reported aggregate CAPEX to realise the estimated potential\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-02-3-819x1024.webp 819w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-02-3-240x300.webp 240w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-02-3-768x960.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-02-3.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 819px) 100vw, 819px\" \/><figcaption><span>2\/8<\/span>Reported aggregate CAPEX to realise the estimated potential<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-slide\" data-carousel-slide aria-label=\"Slide 3 of 8\"><img width=\"819\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-03-3-819x1024.webp\" class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-image\" alt=\"Aggregate 25-year NPV in the baseline scenario\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-03-3-819x1024.webp 819w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-03-3-240x300.webp 240w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-03-3-768x960.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-03-3.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 819px) 100vw, 819px\" \/><figcaption><span>3\/8<\/span>Aggregate 25-year NPV in the baseline scenario<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-slide\" data-carousel-slide aria-label=\"Slide 4 of 8\"><img width=\"819\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-04-3-819x1024.webp\" class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-image\" alt=\"Weighted average LCOE reported in the original scenario\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-04-3-819x1024.webp 819w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-04-3-240x300.webp 240w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-04-3-768x960.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-04-3.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 819px) 100vw, 819px\" \/><figcaption><span>4\/8<\/span>Weighted average LCOE reported in the original scenario<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-slide\" data-carousel-slide aria-label=\"Slide 5 of 8\"><img width=\"819\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-05-3-819x1024.webp\" class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-image\" alt=\"Comparison of the cost of solar power and the price of energy for the public sector\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-05-3-819x1024.webp 819w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-05-3-240x300.webp 240w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-05-3-768x960.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-05-3.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 819px) 100vw, 819px\" \/><figcaption><span>5\/8<\/span>Comparison of the cost of solar power and the price of energy for the public sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-slide\" data-carousel-slide aria-label=\"Slide 6 of 8\"><img width=\"819\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-06-3-819x1024.webp\" class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-image\" alt=\"IRR and payback period as stated in the original economic model\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-06-3-819x1024.webp 819w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-06-3-240x300.webp 240w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-06-3-768x960.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-06-3.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 819px) 100vw, 819px\" \/><figcaption><span>6\/8<\/span>IRR and payback period as stated in the original economic model<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-slide\" data-carousel-slide aria-label=\"Slide 7 of 8\"><img width=\"819\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-07-3-819x1024.webp\" class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-image\" alt=\"Economic clusters identified as the most profitable\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-07-3-819x1024.webp 819w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-07-3-240x300.webp 240w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-07-3-768x960.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-07-3.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 819px) 100vw, 819px\" \/><figcaption><span>7\/8<\/span>Economic clusters identified as the most profitable<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-slide\" data-carousel-slide aria-label=\"Slide 8 of 8\"><a class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-report-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/en\/studio-potenziale-fotovoltaico-tetti-pubblica-amministrazione\/\" aria-label=\"Go to the practice&#039;s main page\"><img width=\"819\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-08-3-819x1024.webp\" class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-image\" alt=\"Economic Priority and Feasibility Matrix\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-08-3-819x1024.webp 819w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-08-3-240x300.webp 240w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-08-3-768x960.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-08-3.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 819px) 100vw, 819px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><span>8\/8<\/span>Economic Priority and Feasibility Matrix<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><button class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-control prev\" type=\"button\" data-carousel-prev aria-label=\"Show the previous slide\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2039<\/span><\/button><button class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-control next\" type=\"button\" data-carousel-next aria-label=\"Show the next slide\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u203a<\/span><\/button><\/p>\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-footer\">\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-dots\" data-carousel-dots role=\"tablist\" aria-label=\"Select a slide\"><button type=\"button\" data-carousel-dot=\"0\" role=\"tab\" aria-label=\"Go to slide 1\" aria-selected=\"true\"><\/button><button type=\"button\" data-carousel-dot=\"1\" role=\"tab\" aria-label=\"Go to slide 2\" aria-selected=\"false\"><\/button><button type=\"button\" data-carousel-dot=\"2\" role=\"tab\" aria-label=\"Go to slide 3\" aria-selected=\"false\"><\/button><button type=\"button\" data-carousel-dot=\"3\" role=\"tab\" aria-label=\"Go to slide 4\" aria-selected=\"false\"><\/button><button type=\"button\" data-carousel-dot=\"4\" role=\"tab\" aria-label=\"Go to slide 5\" aria-selected=\"false\"><\/button><button type=\"button\" data-carousel-dot=\"5\" role=\"tab\" aria-label=\"Go to slide 6\" aria-selected=\"false\"><\/button><button type=\"button\" data-carousel-dot=\"6\" role=\"tab\" aria-label=\"Go to slide 7\" aria-selected=\"false\"><\/button><button type=\"button\" data-carousel-dot=\"7\" role=\"tab\" aria-label=\"Go to slide 8\" aria-selected=\"false\"><\/button><\/div>\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-counter\" aria-live=\"polite\"><span data-carousel-current>1<\/span><span aria-hidden=\"true\"> \/ <\/span>8<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-hint\">On your smartphone swipe sideways. From the keyboard use the left and right arrows.<\/p>\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-audit\"><strong>Carousel audit note.<\/strong> CAPEX, NPV, LCOE, IRR and payback present in the slides belong to the original economic model. They are not considered validated until cash flows, formulae, price sources and sensitivity analyses are available.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<h2>The stated hypotheses<\/h2>\n<p>The preliminary model uses unit CAPEX ranging from 1,600 to 950 \u20ac\/kWp depending on the size, annual OPEX equal to 1.2% of CAPEX, insurance at 0.3%, annual degradation at 0.5%, a WACC of 4%, self-consumption of 60%, a value of \u20ac180\/MWh for self-consumed energy and \u20ac120\/MWh for energy fed into the grid.<\/p>\n<p>These are scenario assumptions, not guaranteed prices. They must be dated and linked to sources. Furthermore, the audited documentation does not cover VAT and taxation, connection costs, design costs, tenders, inverter replacement, downtime, curtailment and residual value.<\/p>\n<h2>Why size changes the economy<\/h2>\n<p>A large hospital can accommodate hundreds of kWp and benefit from economies of scale. A town hall with just a few tens of kWp incurs higher unit costs. Local energy yield also plays a part: for the same roof area, central and southern Italy can produce more energy per year. However, profitability does not depend solely on solar radiation: consumption patterns, the avoided cost, the capacity to feed electricity into the grid and operational continuity all play a part.<\/p>\n<h2>Why IRR, LCOE and payback periods have been suspended<\/h2>\n<p>The original version included LCOE, IRR and payback periods for each cluster. The audit was unable to replicate these figures as the cash flow data was not available. Consequently, these values are not used as investment recommendations in the articles. The claim that \u00abNPV is more than double the capital\u00bb has been removed: even assuming an NPV of 10 billion and CAPEX of 6.8 billion, the ratio is approximately 1.47, which is not greater than two.<\/p>\n<h2>The economic model to be published<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>sources and date of each unit cost;<\/li>\n<li>annual cash flow by cluster and in aggregate;<\/li>\n<li>self-consumption share based on distinct hourly profiles;<\/li>\n<li>scenarios for energy prices and feed-in tariffs;<\/li>\n<li>sensitivity to CAPEX, WACC, degradation and inverter replacement;<\/li>\n<li>connection, design, tendering, insurance and maintenance costs;<\/li>\n<li>consistent treatment of tax, VAT, incentives and residual value.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>How should we interpret the figure of 6.8 billion today?<\/h2>\n<p>The figure should be interpreted as an order of magnitude produced by the model. Divided by 5.68 GW, it equates to an average of approximately \u20ac1,197\/kWp, a figure consistent with a mix of small and large installations but not sufficient to validate the budget. The real question is not just \u00abhow much does it cost?\u00bb, but which portfolios of buildings enable a reduction in transaction costs and an increase in self-consumption and bankability.<\/p>\n<h2>Industrial potential<\/h2>\n<p>A national pipeline could be structured into homogeneous categories: hospitals, large-scale schools, administrative buildings and small municipalities. This would allow for standard specifications, consolidated procurement, maintenance contracts and project finance. The ultimate economic priority, however, must follow a replicable model.<\/p>\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-series\"><strong>Complete series<\/strong><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/en\/fotovoltaico-tetti-pubblici-pniec-2030\/\">Public roofs and National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan 2030<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/en\/metodo-stima-potenziale-fotovoltaico-edifici-pubblici\/\">How was the model built<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/en\/potenziale-fotovoltaico-tetti-pa-568-gw-753-twh\/\">5.68 GW and 7.53 TWh: results and significance<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/en\/costo-fotovoltaico-tetti-pubblici-capex-lcoe\/\">Economics of public intervention<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/en\/pubblica-amministrazione-autosufficienza-energia-fotovoltaico\/\">Energy, self-consumption and emissions<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/en\/piano-operativo-fotovoltaico-edifici-pubblici\/\">From potential to operational plan<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"heiwit-pa-cta\">\n<h2>Check the full study<\/h2>\n<p>Methodology, results, audit limitations and all further details are gathered on the main page of the Heiwit study.<\/p>\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-cta-actions\"><a class=\"heiwit-pa-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/en\/studio-potenziale-fotovoltaico-tetti-pubblica-amministrazione\/\">Go to the full study<\/a><a class=\"heiwit-pa-button secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/en\/contact-us\/\">Contact Heiwit<\/a><\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-sources\">\n<h2>Sources and attributions<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gse.it\/documenti_site\/Documenti%20GSE\/Rapporti%20statistici\/Solare%20Fotovoltaico%20-%20Rapporto%20Statistico%202024.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">GSE \u2014 Solar Photovoltaic Statistical Report 2024<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mase.gov.it\/portale\/documents\/d\/guest\/pniec_2024_revfin_01072024-pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MASE \u2014 National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan, definitive 2024 version<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The CAPEX stated by the model, the economic assumptions, and what is missing to publish replicable IRR, LCOE and payback.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":284742,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[122],"tags":[137,140,88,139,138],"class_list":["post-284751","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-studi-e-ricerche","tag-capex","tag-esco","tag-fotovoltaico","tag-investimenti-pubblici","tag-lcoe"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - 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