{"id":284749,"date":"2026-08-04T15:49:35","date_gmt":"2026-08-04T13:49:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/?p=284749"},"modified":"2026-08-04T17:17:12","modified_gmt":"2026-08-04T15:17:12","slug":"method-for-estimating-photovoltaic-potential-of-public-buildings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/en\/metodo-stima-potenziale-fotovoltaico-edifici-pubblici\/","title":{"rendered":"How we estimated the photovoltaic potential of 41,254 public administration structures"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"heiwit-pa-study\">\n<p class=\"heiwit-pa-lead\">A credible national estimate cannot be born from an average surface area multiplied by the number of properties. The Heiwit model uses a geolocated frame, a stratified sample and solar estimates referred to individual elements. Precisely for this reason, the steps that are not yet replicable must be declared.<\/p>\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-kpis\">\n<div><strong>41.254<\/strong><span>elements in the OSM frame<\/span><\/div>\n<div><strong>20<\/strong><span>layers: 5 areas \u00d7 4 types<\/span><\/div>\n<div><strong>10.000<\/strong><span>declared champion<\/span><\/div>\n<div><strong>9.318<\/strong><span>record with valid data<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-warning\"><strong>Transparency notice.<\/strong> The values 5.68 GW, 7.53 TWh\/year and 6.8 billion euros are results declared by the Heiwit model. The document audit of 4 August 2026 was unable to replicate them in full because detailed datasets, code, API logs, bootstrap outputs, GSE matching and cash flow were missing from the material received. The limitation is stated, not hidden.<\/div>\n<section class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-section\" aria-labelledby=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-2-title\">\n<h2 id=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-2-title\">The chapter in 8 slides<\/h2>\n<p class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-intro\">Scroll through the original carousel created for this chapter. The images have been optimised for the web and uploaded to the WordPress Media Library.<\/p>\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel\" data-heiwit-carousel tabindex=\"0\" aria-roledescription=\"carosello\" aria-label=\"How we estimated the photovoltaic potential of 41,254 public administration structures\"><span class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-badge\">Original slides \u00b7 audited data in the text<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-viewport\" data-carousel-viewport>\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-track\">\n<figure class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-slide\" data-carousel-slide aria-label=\"Slide 1 of 8\"><img width=\"819\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-01-1-819x1024.webp\" class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-image\" alt=\"How much photovoltaic solar can be installed on Italian public roofs\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-01-1-819x1024.webp 819w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-01-1-240x300.webp 240w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-01-1-768x960.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-01-1.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 819px) 100vw, 819px\" \/><figcaption><span>1\/8<\/span>How much photovoltaic solar can be installed on Italian public roofs<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-slide\" data-carousel-slide aria-label=\"Slide 2 of 8\"><img width=\"819\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-02-1-819x1024.webp\" class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-image\" alt=\"Analysed universe: 41,254 items attributable to the Public Administration\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-02-1-819x1024.webp 819w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-02-1-240x300.webp 240w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-02-1-768x960.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-02-1.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 819px) 100vw, 819px\" \/><figcaption><span>2\/8<\/span>Analysed universe: 41,254 items attributable to the Public Administration<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-slide\" data-carousel-slide aria-label=\"Slide 3 of 8\"><img width=\"819\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-03-1-819x1024.webp\" class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-image\" alt=\"Extraction from OpenStreetMap via Overpass API\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-03-1-819x1024.webp 819w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-03-1-240x300.webp 240w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-03-1-768x960.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-03-1.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 819px) 100vw, 819px\" \/><figcaption><span>3\/8<\/span>Extraction from OpenStreetMap via Overpass API<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-slide\" data-carousel-slide aria-label=\"Slide 4 of 8\"><img width=\"819\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-04-1-819x1024.webp\" class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-image\" alt=\"Stratified sample of 10,000 items declared\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-04-1-819x1024.webp 819w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-04-1-240x300.webp 240w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-04-1-768x960.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-04-1.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 819px) 100vw, 819px\" \/><figcaption><span>4\/8<\/span>Stratified sample of 10,000 items declared<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-slide\" data-carousel-slide aria-label=\"Slide 5 of 8\"><img width=\"819\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-05-1-819x1024.webp\" class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-image\" alt=\"Twenty layers by geographical macro-area and functional typology\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-05-1-819x1024.webp 819w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-05-1-240x300.webp 240w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-05-1-768x960.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-05-1.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 819px) 100vw, 819px\" \/><figcaption><span>5\/8<\/span>Twenty layers by geographical macro-area and functional typology<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-slide\" data-carousel-slide aria-label=\"Slide 6 of 8\"><img width=\"819\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-06-1-819x1024.webp\" class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-image\" alt=\"Solar estimate with Google Solar API\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-06-1-819x1024.webp 819w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-06-1-240x300.webp 240w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-06-1-768x960.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-06-1.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 819px) 100vw, 819px\" \/><figcaption><span>6\/8<\/span>Solar estimate with Google Solar API<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-slide\" data-carousel-slide aria-label=\"Slide 7 of 8\"><img width=\"819\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-07-1-819x1024.webp\" class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-image\" alt=\"Methodological fallback using PVGIS from the Joint Research Centre\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-07-1-819x1024.webp 819w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-07-1-240x300.webp 240w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-07-1-768x960.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-07-1.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 819px) 100vw, 819px\" \/><figcaption><span>7\/8<\/span>Methodological fallback using PVGIS from the Joint Research Centre<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-slide\" data-carousel-slide aria-label=\"Slide 8 of 8\"><a class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-report-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/en\/studio-potenziale-fotovoltaico-tetti-pubblica-amministrazione\/\" aria-label=\"Go to the practice&#039;s main page\"><img width=\"819\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-08-1-819x1024.webp\" class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-image\" alt=\"A statistical projection based on actual roofs\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-08-1-819x1024.webp 819w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-08-1-240x300.webp 240w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-08-1-768x960.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/slide-08-1.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 819px) 100vw, 819px\" \/><\/a><figcaption><span>8\/8<\/span>A statistical projection based on actual roofs<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><button class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-control prev\" type=\"button\" data-carousel-prev aria-label=\"Show the previous slide\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2039<\/span><\/button><button class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-control next\" type=\"button\" data-carousel-next aria-label=\"Show the next slide\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u203a<\/span><\/button><\/p>\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-footer\">\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-dots\" data-carousel-dots role=\"tablist\" aria-label=\"Select a slide\"><button type=\"button\" data-carousel-dot=\"0\" role=\"tab\" aria-label=\"Go to slide 1\" aria-selected=\"true\"><\/button><button type=\"button\" data-carousel-dot=\"1\" role=\"tab\" aria-label=\"Go to slide 2\" aria-selected=\"false\"><\/button><button type=\"button\" data-carousel-dot=\"2\" role=\"tab\" aria-label=\"Go to slide 3\" aria-selected=\"false\"><\/button><button type=\"button\" data-carousel-dot=\"3\" role=\"tab\" aria-label=\"Go to slide 4\" aria-selected=\"false\"><\/button><button type=\"button\" data-carousel-dot=\"4\" role=\"tab\" aria-label=\"Go to slide 5\" aria-selected=\"false\"><\/button><button type=\"button\" data-carousel-dot=\"5\" role=\"tab\" aria-label=\"Go to slide 6\" aria-selected=\"false\"><\/button><button type=\"button\" data-carousel-dot=\"6\" role=\"tab\" aria-label=\"Go to slide 7\" aria-selected=\"false\"><\/button><button type=\"button\" data-carousel-dot=\"7\" role=\"tab\" aria-label=\"Go to slide 8\" aria-selected=\"false\"><\/button><\/div>\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-counter\" aria-live=\"polite\"><span data-carousel-current>1<\/span><span aria-hidden=\"true\"> \/ <\/span>8<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-hint\">On your smartphone swipe sideways. From the keyboard use the left and right arrows.<\/p>\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-carousel-audit\"><strong>Carousel audit note.<\/strong> The original slides show 96.5% for the Google Solar API, 3.5% for PVGIS and 174 cases. These figures are not mathematically compatible; the inconsistency is highlighted and explained in the audited text.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<h2>1. The OpenStreetMap frame<\/h2>\n<p>The source universe was extracted from OpenStreetMap via the Overpass API using functional tags attributable to schools, hospitals, town halls and other public services. The correct attribution is: \u00a9 OpenStreetMap contributors, data available under ODbL 1.0, extraction declared April 2026.<\/p>\n<p>The term \u00abframe\u00bb is important. An OSM element does not prove public ownership and can represent a point, a building, a perimeter or a relation. Private schools, clinics and contracted facilities may fall within the functional tags. The Overpass query, deduplication rules and POI-building mapping will therefore need to be published.<\/p>\n<h2>2. The stratified sample<\/h2>\n<p>To keep survey costs down, the study specifies a sample size of 10,000 respondents, equivalent to 24.2% of the frame. The sample is divided into 20 strata obtained by cross-referencing five macro-areas and four functional categories. The national total is estimated using the standard stratified estimator, by multiplying the mean of each stratum by the size of that stratum within the population.<\/p>\n<p>However, the materials report 9,318 records with valid data. The 682 missing ones must be classified: API failures, duplicates, items that cannot be associated with a roof, or other exclusions. Without this classification, non-response bias cannot be ruled out.<\/p>\n<h2>3. Google Solar API and PVGIS<\/h2>\n<p>For the sampled elements, the use of the Building Insights endpoint of the Google Solar API has been declared. The attribution to be maintained near the results is: \u00abSource: includes solar data from Google. Aggregate processing by Heiwit S.p.A.; Google is neither the author nor the validator of the study\u00bb.<\/p>\n<p>The definitive procedure must document the required and returned quality, the date of the imagery, the panel capacity used by the service, the distance between the requested coordinate and the identified building, and checks on multi-building campuses.<\/p>\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-warning\"><strong>Open inconsistency:<\/strong> The data simultaneously show 96.5% of Google coverage, 3.5% of PVGIS fallback and 174 cases. One hundred and seventy-four corresponds to 1.74% of 10,000 or 1.87% of 9,318. The correct figure will be reconstructed from the logs, without retrospectively selecting the most convenient number.<\/div>\n<p>For items processed using PVGIS, the assumptions regarding surface area, roof utilisation factor, orientation and losses must be published. Attribution: PVGIS \u00a9 European Union \/ European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), version 5.2; processing by Heiwit S.p.A. The results do not necessarily reflect the position of the European Commission.<\/p>\n<h2>4. Bootstrap and confidence intervals<\/h2>\n<p>The study states a non-parametric bootstrap of 1,000 iterations. Even if the calculation were correct, the interval would represent sampling uncertainty conditional on the frame and the model. It does not include OSM classification errors, roof matching, image coverage, fallbacks, missing data or economic assumptions.<\/p>\n<h2>5. Comparison with GSE Atlaimpianti<\/h2>\n<p>A match within 80 metres with Atlaimpianti has been declared. The comparison may be useful, but a distance of less than 80 metres does not prove that the system belongs to the building. What is needed is the distribution of distances, manual checks, false positives and outliers. Furthermore, Atlaimpianti is a large set of systems managed or incentivised by the GSE, not the complete census of Italian photovoltaics.<\/p>\n<h2>What is missing for full replication<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Overpass query and deduplication rules;<\/li>\n<li>10,000-record dataset and list of 9,318 valid ones;<\/li>\n<li>Google\/PVGIS log and reasons for exclusion;<\/li>\n<li>sampling, expansion and bootstrap code;<\/li>\n<li>Atlaimpianti matching file and manual checks;<\/li>\n<li>regional dataset and economic model.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-series\"><strong>Complete series<\/strong><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/en\/fotovoltaico-tetti-pubblici-pniec-2030\/\">Public roofs and National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan 2030<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/en\/metodo-stima-potenziale-fotovoltaico-edifici-pubblici\/\">How was the model built<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/en\/potenziale-fotovoltaico-tetti-pa-568-gw-753-twh\/\">5.68 GW and 7.53 TWh: results and significance<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/en\/costo-fotovoltaico-tetti-pubblici-capex-lcoe\/\">Economics of public intervention<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/en\/pubblica-amministrazione-autosufficienza-energia-fotovoltaico\/\">Energy, self-consumption and emissions<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/en\/piano-operativo-fotovoltaico-edifici-pubblici\/\">From potential to operational plan<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>\n<aside class=\"heiwit-pa-cta\">\n<h2>Check the full study<\/h2>\n<p>Methodology, results, audit limitations and all further details are gathered on the main page of the Heiwit study.<\/p>\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-cta-actions\"><a class=\"heiwit-pa-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/en\/studio-potenziale-fotovoltaico-tetti-pubblica-amministrazione\/\">Go to the full study<\/a><a class=\"heiwit-pa-button secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/www.heiwit.com\/en\/contact-us\/\">Contact Heiwit<\/a><\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<div class=\"heiwit-pa-sources\">\n<h2>Sources and attributions<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.openstreetmap.org\/copyright\/it\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenStreetMap \u2014 copyright and ODbL licence<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/developers.google.com\/maps\/documentation\/solar\/policies\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Google Solar API \u2014 policies and attributions<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu\/photovoltaic-geographical-information-system-pvgis\/general-information\/usage-conditions-data-protection_en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">European Commission \/ JRC \u2014 PVGIS terms of use<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gse.it\/Dati-e-Scenari_site\/atlaimpianti_site\/Documents\/Guida%20atlaimpianti.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">GSE \u2014 Atlaimpianti guide<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>OpenStreetMap, stratified sampling, Google Solar API, PVGIS and GSE: the method and remaining open inconsistencies.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":284740,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[122],"tags":[129,131,132,127,128,130],"class_list":["post-284749","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-studi-e-ricerche","tag-google-solar-api","tag-gse","tag-metodologia","tag-open-data","tag-openstreetmap","tag-pvgis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - 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